The EBRD lowers growth forecasts, but is optimistic about inflation

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly lowered its growth forecasts for the regions in which it invests.

Bulgaria's economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2025, 0.1 per cent less than initially forecast in May.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, output in the EBRD's regions for 2024 has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8 per cent.  The report, entitled "Along the adjustment path", cites several reasons for the downward revisions, including the impact of severe drought and ongoing military conflicts in south-eastern EU countries.

The EBRD highlights falling regional inflation. It has fallen from a peak of 17.5 per cent in October 2022 to 5.8 per cent in July 2024. However, inflation remains 1.6 percentage points above the pre-pandemic average.