The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) expects inflation in the country to continue to rise until the end of 2025

Annual inflation is 2.9%, increasing by 2.1% by May 2025 from the end of 2024. The increase is mainly due to increased prices for food and services, as well as higher labor costs of companies per unit of production. Therefore, the BNB expects the rate of increase in consumer prices to accelerate in the second half of 2025.

Economic growth in the country slowed down in the first quarter of 2025 and is 2.9% on an annual basis. It is mainly due to domestic private household consumption, which increased by 9.0% on an annual basis.

The signals of a slowdown in the chain growth of the world economy in the second quarter of this year will probably be reflected in weaker external demand for Bulgarian goods and services.

The BNB warns that an additional negative risk may arise from the possible deepening of trade tensions between the United States and its main economic partners. These factors are a prerequisite for a decrease in economic activity in Bulgaria, given the high degree of openness of the Bulgarian economy and the large share of exports in the country's GDP.

Edited by: Ivo Ivanov
English publication: R. Petkova