Demographic turnaround? Slower decline due to influx of new settlers

Bulgaria's demography surprises us with an unexpected turn. For the third year in a row, more people are choosing to settle in the country than to leave it. Over 52,000 people have chosen Bulgaria as their new home. Among them there are 18,000 Bulgarian emigrants who have returned home, according to NSI data for 2024. Against this backdrop, about 13,000 left the country. In other words, nearly four times more people are coming than leaving. The figures for 2025 are still being processed, but the trend is expected to continue. In an interview with Radio Bulgaria, Assoc. Prof. Georgi Bardarov, who is writer and demography expert, claims that the migration flow has recently reduced the rate at which the population is shrinking by 4 to 5 times:

"Before the pandemic, we were decreasing by an average of 50 to 60 thousand people per year. If we remove the years of the pandemic, when we were in an emergency situation, we decreased by a little over 2,000 in 2023 and by 8,000 in the period 2024-2025, which is due precisely to this positive mechanical growth. The reasons are complex, but the good thing is that a large part of the growth comes from Bulgarians of working age who are returning home, as well as from foreigners. Until now, Bulgaria attracted mainly pensioners from Western Europe and now we also have people of working age - a positive demographic trend," Assoc. Prof. Bardarov says.

According to him, demography is also improving due to economic growth in the country and changes in Western Europe. Schengen, the eurozone and the convergence of living standards are making Bulgaria increasingly attractive. The labour market in Bulgaria experiences acute shortage of personnel and is attracting foreigners from non-EU countries. People from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and even Bangladesh are already working in tourism, the textile industry and medicine. Many European citizens are also settling in the country, as the key factor is the changes in the West. "The idea of ​​Western countries as an unconditional paradise is starting to crack," says Assoc. Prof. Bardarov and adds:

"Western Europe is no longer the mythical Eldorado it was 10-20 years ago. First, we have serious problems there with immigration from Africa and Asia, and secondly, the economic situation and living conditions are not as good as they were in the recent past. I have travelled a lot to Germany with my books and when meeting with the Bulgarian diaspora in the cities, people say that 10 or 15 years ago life was much better, calm and economically profitable for Bulgarians. Now this is increasingly changing and it is normal for them to look back to Bulgaria."

Georgi Bardarov: We need to change the philosophy of our education system

Despite the good news about returning young people, the demographic crisis in Bulgaria continues to be on the agenda. The problem is not the birth rate - on average, each Bulgarian woman gives birth to about 1.83 children, which places us among the leaders in Europe and even ahead of countries like China. The real problem is the extremely high mortality rate. For 2025, the statistics are startling: the number of deaths is twice as high as the number of newborns, Assoc. Prof. Bardarov says.

"I am categorical that the mortality rate is scandalously high for a developed country, although we are not exactly at the economic level of Western European countries. In 2025, the number of babies born was about 50,000 and the number of deaths of people was about 100,000. And this is precisely where the large negative growth comes from. In relative terms, our mortality rate is around 15.5-15.6 per mille, which is about 4.5 per mille higher than the average level for European countries and places us at the top of the negative rankings. The reasons are complex, but they are mainly rooted in an unhealthy lifestyle, especially among young people – alcohol and smoking, lack of sport activities, as well as very low health culture, leading to death from treatable diseases," Assoc. Prof. Bardarov says in conclusion.