Trust in parties with more nationalistic profile is shifting to new formations

A little under 200,000 Bulgarian citizens voted abroad, as 53,000 voted using machine. This was announced by the caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nadezhda Neynski, at a briefing in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with the holding of the early parliamentary elections abroad on April 19.

The result: Bulgaria has a clear winner - "Progressive Bulgaria" coalition is in the lead in the preferences of Bulgarian citizens in 30 out of 31 electoral districts (the exception is Kardzhali, where DPS is traditionally in the lead). The new political formation around former president Rumen Radev was also preferred by the majority of Bulgarians who voted abroad.

Bulgaria will have a 5-party National Assembly, with the first political force having nearly 130 out of 240 members of parliament, which means it will be able to form a cabinet and pass laws - a situation we have not seen in the country for a long time.

The shifting of political figures in Bulgarian politics provides a field for analysis and forecasts and we focus on the vote of Bulgarian citizens abroad, which our team followed closely on election day. At the very beginning of the interview she gave to Radio Bulgaria, sociologist Boriana Dimitrova the Alpha Research agency (BNR's partner in covering the vote) focused on the impact on the electoral process of the changes in the Electoral Code, which limited the number of sections outside Bulgarian diplomatic and consular representations in non-EU countries to 20:

"BNR reported of the huge queues in front of the polling stations and the insistence of people to show that they have the right to vote and want their voice to be heard. According to our survey, which we conducted for the public radio at the beginning of the campaign, 60% of respondents said that they would like our compatriots abroad to have the right to vote and not be deprived of it."

CEC: With 100% of protocols, 5 formations enter the 52nd parliament

What are the surprises in the final results?

The reduced number of sections has certainly had a serious impact on voter turnout abroad, as "Progressive Bulgaria" is the leader there too, with just over 38%.

"Secondly, I wouldn't say it's a surprise that right-wing, democratic parties are gaining serious support abroad. But now we're talking about quite high support - about 22% for We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). If the first (Progressive Bulgaria) gets about 68,000 votes from abroad, then for the second, the votes are about 40,000. Next in line, and with a much weaker result, although we have commented that the vote from Türkiye has the greatest weight in the vote from abroad, is DPS with 8.5% (15,860 votes)."

Although lower than the result we are used to seeing for DPS, the current vote has its explanation:

"Over the past year and a half since the last parliamentary elections in October 2024, we have witnessed how a significant portion of Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) mayors, as well as former activists, such as their co-chairman Dzhevdet Chakarov, through one mechanism or another, joined DPS. So, APS has long ceased to exist as an independent party with strong support. This is so, both because of leaders who were removed or switched to Delyan Peevski's party, and because of the role of Ahmed Dogan, who has been too distant and unconvincing as the leader of the formation for a long time. On the other hand, some APS MPs from the outgoing National Assembly switched to Progressive Bulgaria, with which part of the ethnic vote also switched to the new formation around former President Rumen Radev."

CEC with information about the voting of Bulgarians abroad

According to Dimitrova, what is interesting about the vote in Türkiye is the significantly lower number of voters. 50-60,000 votes were usually coming from Türkiye but this time they were about 15,000. This is partly related to the smaller number of polling stations, although "in countries outside the EU where we have people's motivation, there is high voter turnout". Therefore, the sociologist draws the following conclusion:

"Even if at a certain point you try, with some force or power mechanisms, to get your hands on the vote, this, sooner or later, gives rise to a ricochet and a resistance reaction from the voters."

In the case of the nationalist "Vazrazhdane" and "Velichie" parties that had high results among compatriots abroad in the previous several early elections, the sociologist notices a declining support in Bulgaria, which also has an impact on Bulgarians abroad:

"Despite the decline we are observing, they still have support from people who are employed in different sectors of the economy, but who share more Eurosceptic views. This type of voters continue to vote for both Velichie and Vazrazhdane. And if we take their total result, it makes up about 1/10 of the entire vote abroad."

The special thing about the vote for nationalist parties is that it is not lost, but simply passes from one party to another.