Fiscal Council forecasts average annual inflation of 4.2% and growth of 2.5%

The Fiscal Council forecasts an average annual inflation of 4.2% for Bulgaria and an economic growth of 2.5% in its new macroeconomic forecast. This is the realistic scenario, which has a 60% probability of realization if the crisis in the Persian Gulf ends by mid-year. However, experts have two more scenarios - pessimistic and highly pessimistic.

The pessimistic scenario, calculated with a potential blockade after the second quarter of 2026, predicts an average annual inflation of 4.6% and annual economic growth below 2%. In the highly pessimistic scenario, with a prolonged crisis in the Persian Gulf and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until the beginning of next year, the harmonized average annual inflation will be 5%, and the annual economic growth - only 0.5%.

Editor: Miglena Ivanova