BNB: inflation could accelerate due to Middle East situation

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has warned that inflation could accelerate due to the military conflict in the Middle East. BNB has prepared one baseline and two adverse scenarios in the event of a stronger energy shock.

• Year-on-year inflation in Bulgaria stands at 3.3%, NSI data shows

According to the baseline scenario, Bulgaria’s average annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.7% in 2026, before slowing to 3.2% in 2027 and 2028.

Under the adverse scenario, average annual inflation would exceed that of the baseline scenario by 0.7% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 0.6% in 2028.

Under the highly-adverse scenario, inflation would exceed that of the baseline scenario by 1.2% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027, and 2.3% in 2028.

Edited by Miglena Ivanova

Translated by Kostadin Atanasov