EBRD projects 2.7% economic growth for Bulgaria in 2026

Bulgaria’s real GDP growth remained robust in 2025 at an estimated 2.9%, supported by strong real wage growth of around 8% while net exports declined as the Lukoil Neftohim refinery faced maintenance shutdowns and a complex transition to non-Russian crude under new state-appointed external management, reads the Regional Economics Prospects report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), released today. For 2026, EBRD forecasts economic growth of 2.7%, and for 2027 – 2.6%.

• Economic growth to continue in 2026, inflation is to ease

• Bulgaria ranks fourth in the EU in annual economic growth

The EBRD’s forecast for Bulgaria's economic growth in 2026 is 0.3 percentage points lower than in its September 2025 report, while the forecast for 2027 is up by 0.1 percentage points.

The EBRD highlights that artificial intelligence boom has boosted U.S. imports of technology-related goods, including semiconductors, computers, and precision optical instruments. This could benefit Central European countries, the Baltic states, Bulgaria, and Romania, which export such products.

Edited by Diana Tsankova

Translated by Kostadin Atanasov